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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

But the latest field is distinctly different. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans rising together. During an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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