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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."